Welcome to the Cone of Uncertainty

In software development and agile delivery, the Cone of Uncertainty says estimates are widest early and converge as you learn. This tool helps you visualize where you are and pick the right kind of work next. Read more in my Substack note: The Cone of Uncertainty.
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Which stage best describes your current phase?
Use the six sliders to rate your project’s clarity, risks, and team readiness. The tool will place you in the cone and give tailored guidance.
How well defined are the project’s goals, scope, and acceptance criteria at this point?
What is the team’s level of experience, stability, working agreements, and delivery cadence?
To what degree are key components, interfaces, and data flows understood and agreed?
How clearly are external teams, vendors, and sequence constraints identified and mapped?
How significant are uncertainties that you cannot control?
How strongly do product, engineering, compliance, and customers pull together?
Uncertainty: – Feasibility: – Variance: –
Recommendation will appear here.
Press Evaluate to place your marker and get advice.